BCH Trade was a Smashing Success

As readers know, I went on record very early in August with the prediction that Bitcoin Cash would be a 4 figure coin in short order.  That first run to $940 seemed to vindicate my forecast, but the brutal selling that followed led a few people to prematurely lose faith in the forecast.

My last post suggested that the selling was over and that it was time to load up on BCH if you hadn’t already.  But even I was not expecting my $2500 target to be hit in just a few more days.

What is next? Continue reading “BCH Trade was a Smashing Success”

Bitcoin is in a scary place

Bitcoin has rallied back further than I thought it would, but it is now in a way overbought situation, imho.

First, look at a 2day chart:

As you can see it is not only WAY over the 5th arc pair, it is almost at the end of setup.  It is simply a scary proposition to hold btc here, imho.

But lets look also at the 4 hour chart:

The 4 hour chart is at a 3rd arc pair.  This is a sell signal on the 4 hour chart.

BTC could, of course, surprise me by taking off for the moon as some have suggested ($15,000 btc anyone?).  But at the very least I would suggest taking some money off the table here.  The risk of correction is pretty darn high…

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

 

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“Sell on Yom Kippur”

There is a stock market adage that says:  “Buy on Rosh Hashanah, sell on Yom Kippur.”.  This year Yom Kippur falls on Sept 30.

Interestingly, the S&P500 index will be hitting a  wall of resistance by mid-October.

As those who follow my work already know, a 5th arc is often formidable.  I advise my students not to wait to see what will happen in cases like this.  Just sell, or at least take money off the table, at a 5th arc.

Ominously, it also happens that a spiral calendar event will occur on the S&P500 on 10/24.

My advice to those who are long the stock market is to take profits if you have any and watch from the sidelines for a while.

Happy Trading…

Hell of a rally…

The last time I posted was to warn that btc and eth were in all likelihood going to fall further – probably much further.  The question mark was, as always, on how far it would fall.  Goldman had suggested the 4965 top was a wave 5 top, and other credible sources say it is a wave 3.  While I tend to think it is a 5 rather than a 3, the correction was clearly going to be severe in either case.

This correction was entirely predictable many days before the news/rumors about bitcoin exchanges in China appeared.  Within our chat community users were warned (repeatedly!) in the days leading to the top to get out of both eth and btc.  After the first drop they were repeatedly warned not to succumb to fomo, as there was at least one more drop coming.

Then, last night at 5:45-6:30 pm China time (my time zone) the following posts were made to our users:

Then 15 minutes later the word went out to start buying:

The huge rallies began ~ 30 minutes later.

Several member of the group have reported that they bought at or near the lows in many coins.  I was/am delighted to hear that of course.

So what is next? Continue reading “Hell of a rally…”

Bearish and Bullish at the same time?

Members of the chat community were warned a week ago that it was time to sell BTC and ETH.  There were a number of reasons to see that a top was approaching in BTC.  To name a few:

  • The chart geometry was such that pricetime was at the end of a long term setup in both time and price
  • There was a terribly bearish divergence shown on a number of momentum indicators
  • There are 5 clearly visible waves up from the 1840 low

As for the wave count, I do not consider myself an expert, professional wave counter.  It is not my main trading tool.  However, I know the basic rules, and I can count to 5.

I am told that the trading desk of Goldman believes that this was the end of a wave 5 of a larger degree. I have included the count I believe they have adopted.  If that count is true, then that implies that they believe the correction that is in progress will be deeper, and longer-lasting, than most coin traders have contemplated.

I don’t know Goldman is correct, but they certainly could be. Continue reading “Bearish and Bullish at the same time?”

Bitcoin Cash is still a trade to watch

I have been busy with Trading School classes, and assisting the 200 members of the chat community for the past few months.  As a result, my time to blog has been seriously diminished.  I would like to rectify that with a post today that will highlight a few of the many charts our chat community follows every day.  The write-up per chart will be quite brief in most cases.  Hopefully the screenshot and the brief write-ups will help a few coin traders make some money… Continue reading “Bitcoin Cash is still a trade to watch”

Another BCH rally looks imminent

I realize full well that going with headlines like the one above could leave me with egg on my face.  But its what I do.  If I was going to be just another one of those run-of-the-mill technical analysts who blandly tell you what happened yesterday with no clear forecast of the future, I would not bother posting.

Sometimes I am right sometimes I am not.  We will know within a few days which is the case here.  But I’ll say it again.  A rally for BCH seems highly likely. Perhaps doubling, or more, from here in the next few days, perhaps as early as Aug 27 . Continue reading “Another BCH rally looks imminent”

Bitcoin Cash gave us a wonderful surprise

Bitcoin Cash took center stage in the past 18 hours, making some in our chat community 6 figures of profits, so far, in less than 18 hours. This was the message given to our community, at the very first break upwards, when BCH was still under $310: “I just checked on bch, which is now at an energy point. It is breaking upwards quickly. if you are not following this, you might want to watch carefully…”

This break was not a big surprise to me, nor to others in our chat community.  I am sure that more than a few were skeptical that bitcoin cash was going to roar to life, but at least a few had faith, and that faith was rewarded.  And the best part is, imho, the rally has only just begun.  We will see $1,000+ BCH in the not-distant future – imho. Continue reading “Bitcoin Cash gave us a wonderful surprise”

XBT and ETH are both struggling

XBT and ETH gave sell signals the other day, as reported here.  In ETH case, it was a valid signal, as prices stayed pretty much flat from then until recently, when it broke down.  In XBT case, the signal came early, as BTC rallied a bit more since then.  It is at strong resistance once again.

Our chat community is abuzz with speculation about the implications of both BTC and ETH at resistance.  Some are opting to move to fiat and/or tether to watch from the sidelines for a bit. Continue reading “XBT and ETH are both struggling”